📊 Metrics & Finance
Baseline in Traffic Arbitrage
Minimum ROI threshold (120-200%) to cover costs + profit. Kill campaigns below baseline. Scale 3x above. Your campaign decision bible.
← Back to Glossary📖 What is Baseline?
Baseline = minimum acceptable ROI for profitability after all costs (traffic, tracker, cloaking, farming, chargebacks).
Campaigns below baseline = kill immediately. Above baseline = scale aggressively.
Baseline ROI
Arbitrage Threshold
Campaign Kill Rule
Scaling Baseline
Profit Threshold
Baseline ROI = (Spend + Fixed Costs + Risk Buffer) / Revenue × 100%
Example: $1000 spend + $200 fixed + $300 risk = $1500 / $1000 revenue = 150% baseline
| Vertical | Baseline ROI | Risk Level | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gambling | 200% | High | Scale 200%+ | Kill <180% |
| Dating | 130% | Medium | Scale 150%+ | Kill <120% |
| Nutra | 160% | High | Scale 180%+ | Kill <140% |
| Gaming CPI | 120% | Low | Scale 140%+ | Kill <110% |
| Finance | 180% | Very High | Scale 220%+ | Kill <160% |
ROI < Baseline
KILL IMMEDIATELY
Loss-making. Drain on capital.
Baseline - 30%
PAUSE & OPTIMIZE
Test new creatives/creatives.
Baseline + 50%
SCALE x3
Winner! Triple budget daily.
ArbiterAI Auto-Optimizes Above Baseline
Generate 50+ creatives → Test → Winners beat baseline → Auto-scale via API
⚙️ Baseline Calculator Factors
- Traffic Cost: CPC/CPM x CTR = real spend per click
- Fixed Costs: Tracker ($50/mo), proxies ($100/mo), farming ($200/BM)
- Risk Buffer: 20-50% for chargebacks, bans, hold periods
- Scaling Rule: Never scale below baseline + 30% safety margin
❓ Baseline FAQ
How to calculate my baseline?
(Spend + Fixed + 30% Risk) / Revenue. Example: $1000 spend + $300 costs = 130% baseline minimum.
Should I kill 110% ROI campaigns?
Yes if below your baseline. Capital tied in breakeven = opportunity cost. Always seek 130%+ minimum.
How does ArbiterAI help beat baseline?
Generates 10x more creatives → 3x higher CR → beat baseline faster. API automation for scaling.
Baseline different by GEO?
Yes: US Tier-1 = 120% baseline, Tier-3 = 180%+ due to payment risks/chargebacks.
Beat Baseline = Scale to $10K/day
Generate → Test → Scale winners above baseline. Never kill profitable campaigns again.